a simple definition for the word bias.

Myside bias has been shown to influence the accuracy of memory recall. [38] In an experiment, widows and widowers rated the intensity of their experienced grief six months and five years after the deaths of their spouses. Participants noted a higher experience of grief at six months rather than at five years.

Confirmation bias

"From Wikipedia, the free encyclopedianavigation search Confirmation bias, also called confirmatory bias or myside bias, [Note 1] is the tendency to search for, interpret, favor, and recall information in a way that confirms one's preexisting beliefs or hypotheses. [1] It is a type of cognitive bias and a systematic error of inductive reasoning. People display this bias when they gather or remember information selectively, or when they interpret it in a biased way. The effect is stronger for emotionally charged issues and for deeply entrenched beliefs. Confirmation bias is a variation of the more general tendency of apophenia. People also tend to interpret ambiguous evidence as supporting their existing position. Biased search, interpretation and memory have been invoked to explain attitude polarization (when a disagreement becomes more extreme even though the different parties are exposed to the same evidence), belief perseverance (when beliefs persist after the evidence for them is shown to be false), the irrational primacy effect (a greater reliance on information encountered early in a series) and illusory correlation (when people falsely perceive an association between two events or situations). A series of psychological experiments in the 1960s suggested that people are biased toward confirming their existing beliefs. Later work re-interpreted these results as a tendency to test ideas in a one-sided way, focusing on one possibility and ignoring alternatives. In certain situations, this tendency can bias people's conclusions.

Explanations for the observed biases include wishful thinking and the limited human capacity to process information. Another explanation is that people show confirmation bias because they are weighing up the costs of being wrong, rather than investigating in a neutral, scientific way.

However, even scientists can be prone to confirmation bias. [2]Confirmation biases contribute to overconfidence in personal beliefs and can maintain or strengthen beliefs in the face of contrary evidence. Poor decisions due to these biases have been found in political and organizational contexts. [3] [4]Contents [ hide ]1 Types1.1 Biased search for information1.2 Biased interpretation1.3 Biased memory2 Related effects2.1 Polarization of opinion2.2 Persistence of discredited beliefs2.3 Preference for early information2.4 Illusory association between events3 Individual differences4 History4.1 Informal observation4.2 Wason's research on hypothesis-testing4.3 Klayman and Ha's critique5 Explanations6 Consequences6.1 In finance6.2 In physical and mental health6.3 In politics and law6.4 In the paranormal6.5 In science6.6 In self-image6.7 In social media7 See also8 Notes9 References10 Sources11 Further reading12 External links Types [ edit]Confirmation biases are effects in information processing. They differ from what is sometimes called the behavioral confirmation effect, commonly known as self-fulfilling prophecy, in which a person's expectations influence their own behavior, bringing about the expected result. [5]Some psychologists restrict the term confirmation bias to selective collection of evidence that supports what one already believes while ignoring or rejecting evidence that supports a different conclusion. Others apply the term more broadly to the tendency to preserve one's existing beliefs when searching for evidence, interpreting it, or recalling it from memory. [6] [Note 2]Biased search for information [ edit]Confirmation bias has been described as an internal "" yes man "", echoing back a person's beliefs like Charles Dickens ' character Uriah Heep. [7]Experiments have found repeatedly that people tend to test hypotheses in a one-sided way, by searching for evidence consistent with their current hypothesis. [8] [9] Rather than searching through all the relevant evidence, they phrase questions to receive an affirmative answer that supports their theory. [10] They look for the consequences that they would expect if their hypothesis were true, rather than what would happen if they were false. [10] For example, someone using yes/no questions to find a number he or she suspects to be the number 3 might ask, ""Is it an odd number ?"" People prefer this type of question, called a ""positive test"", even when a negative test such as ""Is it an even number?"" would yield exactly the same information. [11] However, this does not mean that people seek tests that guarantee a positive answer. In studies where subjects could select either such pseudo-tests or genuinely diagnostic ones, they favored the genuinely diagnostic. [12] [13]The preference for positive tests in itself is not a bias, since positive tests can be highly informative. [14] However, in combination with other effects, this strategy can confirm existing beliefs or assumptions, independently of whether they are true. [15] In real-world situations, evidence is often complex and mixed. For example, various contradictory ideas about someone could each be supported by concentrating on one aspect of his or her behavior. [9] Thus any search for evidence in favor of a hypothesis is likely to succeed. [15] One illustration of this is the way the phrasing of a question can significantly change the answer. [9] For example, people who are asked, ""Are you happy with your social life?"" report greater satisfaction than those asked, ""Are you un happy with your social life?"" [16]Even a small change in a question's wording can affect how people search through available information, and hence the conclusions they reach. This was shown using a fictional child custody case. [17] Participants read that Parent A was moderately suitable to be the guardian in multiple ways. Parent B had a mix of salient positive and negative qualities: a close relationship with the child but a job that would take him or her away for long periods of time. When asked, ""Which parent should have custody of the child?"" the majority of participants chose Parent B, looking mainly for positive attributes. However, when asked, ""Which parent should be denied custody of the child?"" they looked for negative attributes and the majority answered that Parent B should be denied custody, implying that Parent A should have custody. [17]Similar studies have demonstrated how people engage in a biased search for information, but also that this phenomenon may be limited by a preference for genuine diagnostic tests. In an initial experiment, participants rated another person on the introversion–extroversion personality dimension on the basis of an interview. They chose the interview questions from a given list. When the interviewee was introduced as an introvert, the participants chose questions that presumed introversion, such as, ""What do you find unpleasant about noisy parties?"" When the interviewee was described as extroverted, almost all the questions presumed extroversion, such as, ""What would you do to liven up a dull party?"" These loaded questions gave the interviewees little or no opportunity to falsify the hypothesis about them. [18] A later version of the experiment gave the participants less presumptive questions to choose from, such as, ""Do you shy away from social interactions?"" [19] Participants preferred to ask these more diagnostic questions, showing only a weak bias towards positive tests. This pattern, of a main preference for diagnostic tests and a weaker preference for positive tests, has been replicated in other studies. [19]Personality traits influence and interact with biased search processes. [20] Individuals vary in their abilities to defend their attitudes from external attacks in relation to selective exposure. Selective exposure occurs when individuals search for information that is consistent, rather than inconsistent, with their personal beliefs. [21] An experiment examined the extent to which individuals could refute arguments that contradicted their personal beliefs. [20] People with high confidence levels more readily seek out contradictory information to their personal position to form an argument. Individuals with low confidence levels do not seek out contradictory information and prefer information that supports their personal position. People generate and evaluate evidence in arguments that are biased towards their own beliefs and opinions. [22] Heightened confidence levels decrease preference for information that supports individuals' personal beliefs. Another experiment gave participants a complex rule-discovery task that involved moving objects simulated by a computer. [23] Objects on the computer screen followed specific laws, which the participants had to figure out. So, participants could ""fire"" objects across the screen to test their hypotheses. Despite making many attempts over a ten-hour session, none of the participants figured out the rules of the system. They typically attempted to confirm rather than falsify their hypotheses, and were reluctant to consider alternatives. Even after seeing objective evidence that refuted their working hypotheses, they frequently continued doing the same tests. Some of the participants were taught proper hypothesis-testing, but these instructions had almost no effect. [23]Biased interpretation [ edit]Smart people believe weird things because they are skilled at defending beliefs they arrived at for non-smart reasons.— Michael Shermer [24]Confirmation biases are not limited to the collection of evidence. Even if two individuals have the same information, the way they interpret it can be biased. A team at Stanford University conducted an experiment involving participants who felt strongly about capital punishment, with half in favor and half against it. [25] [26] Each participant read descriptions of two studies: a comparison of U. S. states with and without the death penalty, and a comparison of murder rates in a state before and after the introduction of the death penalty. After reading a quick description of each study, the participants were asked whether their opinions had changed. Then, they read a more detailed account of each study's procedure and had to rate whether the research was well-conducted and convincing. [25] In fact, the studies were fictional. Half the participants were told that one kind of study supported the deterrent effect and the other undermined it, while for other participants the conclusions were swapped. [25] [26]The participants, whether supporters or opponents, reported shifting their attitudes slightly in the direction of the first study they read. Once they read the more detailed descriptions of the two studies, they almost all returned to their original belief regardless of the evidence provided, pointing to details that supported their viewpoint and disregarding anything contrary. Participants described studies supporting their pre-existing view as superior to those that contradicted it, in detailed and specific ways. [25] [27] Writing about a study that seemed to undermine the deterrence effect, a death penalty proponent wrote, ""The research didn't cover a long enough period of time,"" while an opponent's comment on the same study said, ""No strong evidence to contradict the researchers has been presented."" [25] The results illustrated that people set higher standards of evidence for hypotheses that go against their current expectations. This effect, known as ""disconfirmation bias"", has been supported by other experiments. [28]Another study of biased interpretation occurred during the 2004 U. S. presidential election and involved participants who reported having strong feelings about the candidates. They were shown apparently contradictory pairs of statements, either from Republican candidate George W. Bush, Democratic candidate John Kerry or a politically neutral public figure. They were also given further statements that made the apparent contradiction seem reasonable. From these three pieces of information, they had to decide whether or not each individual's statements were inconsistent. [29]: 1948 There were strong differences in these evaluations, with participants much more likely to interpret statements from the candidate they opposed as contradictory. [29]: 1951An MRI scanner allowed researchers to examine how the human brain deals with unwelcome information. In this experiment, the participants made their judgments while in a magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) scanner which monitored their brain activity. As participants evaluated contradictory statements by their favored candidate, emotional centers of their brains were aroused. This did not happen with the statements by the other figures. The experimenters inferred that the different responses to the statements were not due to passive reasoning errors. Instead, the participants were actively reducing the cognitive dissonance induced by reading about their favored candidate's irrational or hypocritical behavior. [29]: 1956Biases in belief interpretation are persistent, regardless of intelligence level. Participants in an experiment took the SAT test (a college admissions test used in the United States) to assess their intelligence levels. They then read information regarding safety concerns for vehicles, and the experimenters manipulated the national origin of the car. American participants provided their opinion if the car should be banned on a six-point scale, where one indicated ""definitely yes"" and six indicated ""definitely no"". Participants firstly evaluated if they would allow a dangerous German car on American streets and a dangerous American car on German streets. Participants believed that the dangerous German car on American streets should be banned more quickly than the dangerous American car on German streets. There was no difference among intelligence levels at the rate participants would ban a car. [22]Biased interpretation is not restricted to emotionally significant topics. In another experiment, participants were told a story about a theft. They had to rate the evidential importance of statements arguing either for or against a particular character being responsible. When they hypothesized that character's guilt, they rated statements supporting that hypothesis as more important than conflicting statements. [30]Biased memory [ edit]People may remember evidence selectively to reinforce their expectations, even if they gather and interpret evidence in a neutral manner. This effect is called ""selective recall"", ""confirmatory memory"", or ""access-biased memory"". [31] Psychological theories differ in their predictions about selective recall. Schema theory predicts that information matching prior expectations will be more easily stored and recalled than information that does not match. [32] Some alternative approaches say that surprising information stands out and so is memorable. [32] Predictions from both these theories have been confirmed in different experimental contexts, with no theory winning outright. [33]In one study, participants read a profile of a woman which described a mix of introverted and extroverted behaviors. [34] They later had to recall examples of her introversion and extroversion. One group was told this was to assess the woman for a job as a librarian, while a second group were told it was for a job in real estate sales. There was a significant difference between what these two groups recalled, with the ""librarian"" group recalling more examples of introversion and the ""sales"" groups recalling more extroverted behavior. [34] A selective memory effect has also been shown in experiments that manipulate the desirability of personality types. [32] [35] In one of these, a group of participants were shown evidence that extroverted people are more successful than introverts. Another group were told the opposite. In a subsequent, apparently unrelated study, participants were asked to recall events from their lives in which they had been either introverted or extroverted. Each group of participants provided more memories connecting themselves with the more desirable personality type, and recalled those memories more quickly. [36]Changes in emotional states can also influence memory recall. [37] [38] Participants rated how they felt when they had first learned that O. J. Simpson had been acquitted of murder charges. [37] They described their emotional reactions and confidence regarding the verdict one week, two months, and one year after the trial. Results indicated that participants' assessments for Simpson's guilt changed over time. The more that participants' opinion of the verdict had changed, the less stable were the participant's memories regarding their initial emotional reactions. When participants recalled their initial emotional reactions two months and a year later, past appraisals closely resembled current appraisals of emotion. People demonstrate sizable myside bias when discussing their opinions on controversial topics. [22] Memory recall and construction of experiences undergo revision in relation to corresponding emotional states.

Yet, when the participants were asked after five years how they had felt six months after the death of their significant other, the intensity of grief participants recalled was highly correlated with their current level of grief. Individuals appear to utilize their current emotional states to analyze how they must have felt when experiencing past events. [37] Emotional memories are reconstructed by current emotional states. One study showed how selective memory can maintain belief in extrasensory perception (ESP). [39] Believers and disbelievers were each shown descriptions of ESP experiments. Half of each group were told that the experimental results supported the existence of ESP, while the others were told they did not. In a subsequent test, participants recalled the material accurately, apart from believers who had read the non-supportive evidence. This group remembered significantly less information and some of them incorrectly remembered the results as supporting ESP. [39]Related effects [ edit]Polarization of opinion [ edit]Main article: Attitude polarization When people with opposing views interpret new information in a biased way, their views can move even further apart. This is called ""attitude polarization"". [40] The effect was demonstrated by an experiment that involved drawing a series of red and black balls from one of two concealed ""bingo baskets"". Participants knew that one basket contained 60% black and 40% red balls; the other, 40% black and 60% red. The experimenters looked at what happened when balls of alternating color were drawn in turn, a sequence that does not favor either basket. After each ball was drawn, participants in one group were asked to state out loud their judgments of the probability that the balls were being drawn from one or the other basket. These participants tended to grow more confident with each successive draw—whether they initially thought the basket with 60% black balls or the one with 60% red balls was the more likely source, their estimate of the probability increased. Another group of participants were asked to state probability estimates only at the end of a sequence of drawn balls, rather than after each ball. They did not show the polarization effect, suggesting that it does not necessarily occur when people simply hold opposing positions, but rather when they openly commit to them. [41]A less abstract study was the Stanford biased interpretation experiment in which participants with strong opinions about the death penalty read about mixed experimental evidence. Twenty-three percent of the participants reported that their views had become more extreme, and this self-reported shift correlated strongly with their initial attitudes. [25] In later experiments, participants also reported their opinions becoming more extreme in response to ambiguous information. However, comparisons of their attitudes before and after the new evidence showed no significant change, suggesting that the self-reported changes might not be real. [28] [40] [42] Based on these experiments, Deanna Kuhn and Joseph Lao concluded that polarization is a real phenomenon but far from inevitable, only happening in a small minority of cases. They found that it was prompted not only by considering mixed evidence, but by merely thinking about the topic. [40]Charles Taber and Milton Lodge argued that the Stanford team's result had been hard to replicate because the arguments used in later experiments were too abstract or confusing to evoke an emotional response. The Taber and Lodge study used the emotionally charged topics of gun control and affirmative action. [28] They measured the attitudes of their participants towards these issues before and after reading arguments on each side of the debate. Two groups of participants showed attitude polarization: those with strong prior opinions and those who were politically knowledgeable. In part of this study, participants chose which information sources to read, from a list prepared by the experimenters. For example, they could read the National Rifle Association 's and the Brady Anti-Handgun Coalition 's arguments on gun control. Even when instructed to be even-handed, participants were more likely to read arguments that supported their existing attitudes than arguments that did not. This biased search for information correlated well with the polarization effect. [28]The backfire effect is a name for the finding that, given evidence against their beliefs, people can reject the evidence and believe even more strongly. [43] [44] The phrase was first coined by Brendan Nyhan and Jason Reifler in 2010. [45]Persistence of discredited beliefs [ edit]Main article: Belief perseverance [B]eliefs can survive potent logical or empirical challenges. They can survive and even be bolstered by evidence that most uncommitted observers would agree logically demands some weakening of such beliefs. They can even survive the total destruction of their original evidential bases.—Lee Ross and Craig Anderson [46]Confirmation biases can be used to explain why some beliefs persist when the initial evidence for them is removed. [47] This belief perseverance effect has been shown by a series of experiments using what is called the ""debriefing paradigm"": participants read fake evidence for a hypothesis, their attitude change is measured, then the fakery is exposed in detail. Their attitudes are then measured once more to see if their belief returns to its previous level. [46]A common finding is that at least some of the initial belief remains even after a full debriefing. [48] In one experiment, participants had to distinguish between real and fake suicide notes. The feedback was random: some were told they had done well while others were told they had performed badly. Even after being fully debriefed, participants were still influenced by the feedback. They still thought they were better or worse than average at that kind of task, depending on what they had initially been told. [49]In another study, participants read job performance ratings of two firefighters, along with their responses to a risk aversion test. [46] This fictional data was arranged to show either a negative or positive association: some participants were told that a risk-taking firefighter did better, while others were told they did less well than a risk-averse colleague. [50] Even if these two case studies were true, they would have been scientifically poor evidence for a conclusion about firefighters in general. However, the participants found them subjectively persuasive. [50] When the case studies were shown to be fictional, participants' belief in a link diminished, but around half of the original effect remained. [46] Follow-up interviews established that the participants had understood the debriefing and taken it seriously. Participants seemed to trust the debriefing, but regarded the discredited information as irrelevant to their personal belief. [50]The continued influence effect is the tendency to believe previously learned misinformation even after it has been corrected. Misinformation can still influence inferences one generates after a correction has occurred. [51]Preference for early information [ edit]Experiments have shown that information is weighted more strongly when it appears early in a series, even when the order is unimportant. For example, people form a more positive impression of someone described as ""intelligent, industrious, impulsive, critical, stubborn, envious"" than when they are given the same words in reverse order. [52] This irrational primacy effect is independent of the primacy effect in memory in which the earlier items in a series leave a stronger memory trace. [52] Biased interpretation offers an explanation for this effect: seeing the initial evidence, people form a working hypothesis that affects how they interpret the rest of the information. [47]One demonstration of irrational primacy used colored chips supposedly drawn from two urns. Participants were told the color distributions of the urns, and had to estimate the probability of a chip being drawn from one of them. [52] In fact, the colors appeared in a prearranged order. The first thirty draws favored one urn and the next thirty favored the other. [47] The series as a whole was neutral, so rationally, the two urns were equally likely. However, after sixty draws, participants favored the urn suggested by the initial thirty. [52]Another experiment involved a slide show of a single object, seen as just a blur at first and in slightly better focus with each succeeding slide. [52] After each slide, participants had to state their best guess of what the object was. Participants whose early guesses were wrong persisted with those guesses, even when the picture was sufficiently in focus that the object was readily recognizable to other people. [47]Illusory association between events [ edit]Main article: Illusory correlation Illusory correlation is the tendency to see non-existent correlations in a set of data. [53] This tendency was first demonstrated in a series of experiments in the late 1960s. [54] In one experiment, participants read a set of psychiatric case studies, including responses to the Rorschach inkblot test. The participants reported that the homosexual men in the set were more likely to report seeing buttocks, anuses or sexually ambiguous figures in the inkblots. In fact the fictional case studies had been constructed so that the homosexual men were no more likely to report this imagery or, in one version of the experiment, were less likely to report it than heterosexual men. [53] In a survey, a group of experienced psychoanalysts reported the same set of illusory associations with homosexuality. [53] [54]Another study recorded the symptoms experienced by arthritic patients, along with weather conditions over a 15-month period. Nearly all the patients reported that their pains were correlated with weather conditions, although the real correlation was zero. [55]This effect is a kind of biased interpretation, in that objectively neutral or unfavorable evidence is interpreted to support existing beliefs. It is also related to biases in hypothesis-testing behavior. [56] In judging whether two events, such as illness and bad weather, are correlated, people rely heavily on the number of positive-positive cases: in this example, instances of both pain and bad weather. They pay relatively little attention to the other kinds of observation (of no pain and/or good weather). [57] This parallels the reliance on positive tests in hypothesis testing. [56] It may also reflect selective recall, in that people may have a sense that two events are correlated because it is easier to recall times when they happened together. [56]Individual differences [ edit]Myside bias was once believed to be associated with greater intelligence; however, studies have shown that myside bias can be more influenced by ability to rationally think as opposed to level of intelligence. [58] Myside bias can cause an inability to effectively and logically evaluate the opposite side of an argument. Studies have stated that myside bias is an absence of ""active open-mindedness"", meaning the active search for why an initial idea may be wrong. [59] Typically, myside bias is operationalized in empirical studies as the quantity of evidence used in support of their side in comparison to the opposite side. [60]A study has found individual differences in myside bias. This study investigates individual differences that are acquired through learning in a cultural context and are mutable. The researcher found important individual difference in argumentation. Studies have suggested that individual differences such as deductive reasoning ability, ability to overcome belief bias, epistemological understanding, and thinking disposition are significant predictors of the reasoning and generating arguments, counterarguments, and rebuttals. [61] [62] [63]A study by Christopher Wolfe and Anne Britt also investigated how participants' views of ""what makes a good argument?"" can be a source of myside bias that influence the way a person formulates his own arguments. [60] The study investigated individual differences of argumentation schema and asked participants to write essays. The participants were randomly assigned to write essays either for or against their preferred side of an argument and were given research instructions that took either a balanced or an unrestricted approach. The balanced-research instructions directed participants to create a ""balanced"" argument, i.e., that included both pros and cons; the unrestricted-research instructions included nothing on how to create the argument. [60]Overall, the results revealed that the balanced-research instructions significantly increased the incidence of opposing information in arguments. These data also reveal that personal belief is not a source of myside bias; however, that those participants, who believe that a good argument is one that is based on facts, are more likely to exhibit myside bias than other participants. This evidence is consistent with the claims proposed in Baron's article—that people's opinions about what makes good thinking can influence how arguments are generated. [60]History [ edit]Francis Bacon Informal observation [ edit]Before psychological research on confirmation bias, the phenomenon had been observed throughout history. Beginning with the Greek historian Thucydides (c. 460 BC – c. 395 BC), who wrote of misguided treason in The Peloponnesian War; ""... for it is a habit of mankind to entrust to careless hope what they long for, and to use sovereign reason to thrust aside what they do not fancy"". [64] Italian poet Dante Alighieri (1265–1321), noted it in his famous work, the Divine Comedy, in which St. Thomas Aquinas cautions Dante upon meeting in Paradise, ""opinion—hasty—often can incline to the wrong side, and then affection for one's own opinion binds, confines the mind"". [65] Ibn Khaldun noticed the same effect in his Muqaddimah:""Untruth naturally afflicts historical information. There are various reasons that make this unavoidable. One of them is partisanship for opinions and schools. [...] if the soul is infected with partisanship for a particular opinion or sect, it accepts without a moment's hesitation the information that is agreeable to it. Prejudice and partisanship obscure the critical faculty and preclude critical investigation. The result is that falsehoods are accepted and transmitted."" [66]English philosopher and scientist Francis Bacon (1561–1626), [67] in the Novum Organum noted that biased assessment of evidence drove ""all superstitions, whether in astrology, dreams, omens, divine judgments or the like"". [68] He wrote: The human understanding when it has once adopted an opinion ... draws all things else to support and agree with it. And though there be a greater number and weight of instances to be found on the other side, yet these it either neglects or despises, or else by some distinction sets aside or rejects [.] [68]In the second volume of his The World as Will and Representation (1844), German philosopher Arthur Schopenhauer observed that ""An adopted hypothesis gives us lynx-eyes for everything that confirms it and makes us blind to everything that contradicts it."" [69]In his essay (1897) "" What Is Art? "" Russian novelist Leo Tolstoy wrote,I know that most men—not only those considered clever, but even those who are very clever, and capable of understanding most difficult scientific, mathematical, or philosophic problems—can very seldom discern even the simplest and most obvious truth if it be such as to oblige them to admit the falsity of conclusions they have formed, perhaps with much difficulty—conclusions of which they are proud, which they have taught to others, and on which they have built their lives. [70]Wason's research on hypothesis-testing [ edit]The term ""confirmation bias"" was coined by English psychologist Peter Wason. [71] For an experiment published in 1960, he challenged participants to identify a rule applying to triples of numbers. At the outset, they were told that (2,4,6) fits the rule. Participants could generate their own triples and the experimenter told them whether or not each triple conformed to the rule. [72] [73]While the actual rule was simply ""any ascending sequence"", the participants had a great deal of difficulty in finding it, often announcing rules that were far more specific, such as ""the middle number is the average of the first and last"". [72] The participants seemed to test only positive examples—triples that obeyed their hypothesized rule. For example, if they thought the rule was, ""Each number is two greater than its predecessor,"" they would offer a triple that fit this rule, such as (11,13,15) rather than a triple that violates it, such as (11,12,19). [74]Wason accepted falsificationism, according to which a scientific test of a hypothesis is a serious attempt to falsify it. He interpreted his results as showing a preference for confirmation over falsification, hence the term ""confirmation bias"". [Note 3] [75] Wason also used confirmation bias to explain the results of his selection task experiment. [76] In this task, participants are given partial information about a set of objects, and have to specify what further information they would need to tell whether or not a conditional rule (""If A, then B"") applies. It has been found repeatedly that people perform badly on various forms of this test, in most cases ignoring information that could potentially refute the rule. [77] [78]Klayman and Ha's critique [ edit]A 1987 paper by Joshua Klayman and Young-Won Ha argued that the Wason experiments had not actually demonstrated a bias towards confirmation. Instead, Klayman and Ha interpreted the results in terms of a tendency to make tests that are consistent with the working hypothesis. [79] They called this the ""positive test strategy"". [9] This strategy is an example of a heuristic: a reasoning shortcut that is imperfect but easy to compute. [80] Klayman and Ha used Bayesian probability and information theory as their standard of hypothesis-testing, rather than the falsificationism used by Wason. According to these ideas, each answer to a question yields a different amount of information, which depends on the person's prior beliefs. Thus a scientific test of a hypothesis is one that is expected to produce the most information. Since the information content depends on initial probabilities, a positive test can either be highly informative or uninformative. Klayman and Ha argued that when people think about realistic problems, they are looking for a specific answer with a small initial probability. In this case, positive tests are usually more informative than negative tests. [14] However, in Wason's rule discovery task the answer—three numbers in ascending order—is very broad, so positive tests are unlikely to yield informative answers. Klayman and Ha supported their analysis by citing an experiment that used the labels ""DAX"" and ""MED"" in place of ""fits the rule"" and ""doesn't fit the rule"". This avoided implying that the aim was to find a low-probability rule. Participants had much more success with this version of the experiment. [81] [82]If the true rule (T) encompasses the current hypothesis (H), then positive tests (examining an H to see if it is T) will not show that the hypothesis is false. If the true rule (T) overlaps the current hypothesis (H), then either a negative test or a positive test can potentially falsify H. When the working hypothesis (H) includes the true rule (T) then positive tests are the only way to falsify H. In light of this and other critiques, the focus of research moved away from confirmation versus falsification to examine whether people test hypotheses in an informative way, or an uninformative but positive way. The search for ""true"" confirmation bias led psychologists to look at a wider range of effects in how people process information. [83]Explanations [ edit]Confirmation bias is often described as a result of automatic, unintentional strategies rather than deliberate deception. [15] [84] According to Robert Maccoun, most biased evidence processing occurs through a combination of both ""cold"" (cognitive) and ""hot"" (motivated) mechanisms. [85]Cognitive explanations for confirmation bias are based on limitations in people's ability to handle complex tasks, and the shortcuts, called heuristics, that they use. [86] For example, people may judge the reliability of evidence by using the availability heuristic —i.e., how readily a particular idea comes to mind. [87] It is also possible that people can only focus on one thought at a time, so find it difficult to test alternative hypotheses in parallel. [88] Another heuristic is the positive test strategy identified by Klayman and Ha, in which people test a hypothesis by examining cases where they expect a property or event to occur. This heuristic avoids the difficult or impossible task of working out how diagnostic each possible question will be. However, it is not universally reliable, so people can overlook challenges to their existing beliefs. [14] [89]Motivational explanations involve an effect of desire on belief, sometimes called "" wishful thinking "". [90] [91] It is known that people prefer pleasant thoughts over unpleasant ones in a number of ways: this is called the "" Pollyanna principle "". [92] Applied to arguments or sources of evidence, this could explain why desired conclusions are more likely to be believed true. [90] According to experiments that manipulate the desirability of the conclusion, people demand a high standard of evidence for unpalatable ideas and a low standard for preferred ideas. In other words, they ask, ""Can I believe this?"" for some suggestions and, ""Must I believe this?"" for others. [93] [94] Although consistency is a desirable feature of attitudes, an excessive drive for consistency is another potential source of bias because it may prevent people from neutrally evaluating new, surprising information. [90] Social psychologist Ziva Kunda combines the cognitive and motivational theories, arguing that motivation creates the bias, but cognitive factors determine the size of the effect. [95]Explanations in terms of cost-benefit analysis assume that people do not just test hypotheses in a disinterested way, but assess the costs of different errors. [96] Using ideas from evolutionary psychology, James Friedrich suggests that people do not primarily aim at truth in testing hypotheses, but try to avoid the most costly errors. For example, employers might ask one-sided questions in job interviews because they are focused on weeding out unsuitable candidates. [97] Yaacov Trope and Akiva Liberman's refinement of this theory assumes that people compare the two different kinds of error: accepting a false hypothesis or rejecting a true hypothesis. For instance, someone who underestimates a friend's honesty might treat him or her suspiciously and so undermine the friendship. Overestimating the friend's honesty may also be costly, but less so. In this case, it would be rational to seek, evaluate or remember evidence of their honesty in a biased way. [98] When someone gives an initial impression of being introverted or extroverted, questions that match that impression come across as more empathic. [99] This suggests that when talking to someone who seems to be an introvert, it is a sign of better social skills to ask, ""Do you feel awkward in social situations?"" rather than, ""Do you like noisy parties?"" The connection between confirmation bias and social skills was corroborated by a study of how college students get to know other people. Highly self-monitoring students, who are more sensitive to their environment and to social norms, asked more matching questions when interviewing a high-status staff member than when getting to know fellow students. [99]Psychologists Jennifer Lerner and Philip Tetlock distinguish two different kinds of thinking process. Exploratory thought neutrally considers multiple points of view and tries to anticipate all possible objections to a particular position, while confirmatory thought seeks to justify a specific point of view. Lerner and Tetlock say that when people expect to justify their position to others whose views they already know, they will tend to adopt a similar position to those people, and then use confirmatory thought to bolster their own credibility. However, if the external parties are overly aggressive or critical, people will disengage from thought altogether, and simply assert their personal opinions without justification. [100] Lerner and Tetlock say that people only push themselves to think critically and logically when they know in advance they will need to explain themselves to others who are well-informed, genuinely interested in the truth, and whose views they don't already know. [101] Because those conditions rarely exist, they argue, most people are using confirmatory thought most of the time. [102]Consequences [ edit]In finance [ edit]Confirmation bias can lead investors to be overconfident, ignoring evidence that their strategies will lose money. [7] [103] In studies of political stock markets, investors made more profit when they resisted bias. For example, participants who interpreted a candidate's debate performance in a neutral rather than partisan way were more likely to profit. [104] To combat the effect of confirmation bias, investors can try to adopt a contrary viewpoint ""for the sake of argument"". [105] In one technique, they imagine that their investments have collapsed and ask themselves why this might happen. [7]In physical and mental health [ edit]Raymond Nickerson, a psychologist, blames confirmation bias for the ineffective medical procedures that were used for centuries before the arrival of scientific medicine. [106] If a patient recovered, medical authorities counted the treatment as successful, rather than looking for alternative explanations such as that the disease had run its natural course. [106] Biased assimilation is a factor in the modern appeal of alternative medicine, whose proponents are swayed by positive anecdotal evidence but treat scientific evidence hyper-critically. [107] [108] [109] Confirmation bias may also cause doctors to perform unnecessary medical procedures due to pressure from adamant patients. [110] Cognitive therapy was developed by Aaron T. Beck in the early 1960s and has become a popular approach. [111] According to Beck, biased information processing is a factor in depression. [112] His approach teaches people to treat evidence impartially, rather than selectively reinforcing negative outlooks. [67] Phobias and hypochondria have also been shown to involve confirmation bias for threatening information. [113]In politics and law [ edit]Mock trials allow researchers to examine confirmation biases in a realistic setting. Nickerson argues that reasoning in judicial and political contexts is sometimes subconsciously biased, favoring conclusions that judges, juries or governments have already committed to. [114] Since the evidence in a jury trial can be complex, and jurors often reach decisions about the verdict early on, it is reasonable to expect an attitude polarization effect. The prediction that jurors will become more extreme in their views as they see more evidence has been borne out in experiments with mock trials. [115] [116] Both inquisitorial and adversarial criminal justice systems are affected by confirmation bias. [117]Confirmation bias can be a factor in creating or extending conflicts, from emotionally charged debates to wars: by interpreting the evidence in their favor, each opposing party can become overconfident that it is in the stronger position. [118] On the other hand, confirmation bias can result in people ignoring or misinterpreting the signs of an imminent or incipient conflict. For example, psychologists Stuart Sutherland and Thomas Kida have each argued that U. S. Navy Admiral Husband E. Kimmel showed confirmation bias when playing down the first signs of the Japanese attack on Pearl Harbor. [77] [119]A two-decade study of political pundits by Philip E. Tetlock found that, on the whole, their predictions were not much better than chance. Tetlock divided experts into ""foxes"" who maintained multiple hypotheses, and ""hedgehogs"" who were more dogmatic. In general, the hedgehogs were much less accurate. Tetlock blamed their failure on confirmation bias—specifically, their inability to make use of new information that contradicted their existing theories. [120]In the paranormal [ edit]One factor in the appeal of alleged psychic readings is that listeners apply a confirmation bias which fits the psychic's statements to their own lives. [121] By making a large number of ambiguous statements in each sitting, the psychic gives the client more opportunities to find a match. This is one of the techniques of cold reading, with which a psychic can deliver a subjectively impressive reading without any prior information about the client. [121] Investigator James Randi compared the transcript of a reading to the client's report of what the psychic had said, and found that the client showed a strong selective recall of the ""hits"". [122]As a striking illustration of confirmation bias in the real world, Nickerson mentions numerological pyramidology: the practice of finding meaning in the proportions of the Egyptian pyramids. [123] There are many different length measurements that can be made of, for example, the Great Pyramid of Giza and many ways to combine or manipulate them. Hence it is almost inevitable that people who look at these numbers selectively will find superficially impressive correspondences, for example with the dimensions of the Earth. [123]In science [ edit]A distinguishing feature of scientific thinking is the search for falsifying as well as confirming evidence. [124] However, many times in the history of science, scientists have resisted new discoveries by selectively interpreting or ignoring unfavorable data. [124] Previous research has shown that the assessment of the quality of scientific studies seems to be particularly vulnerable to confirmation bias. It has been found several times that scientists rate studies that report findings consistent with their prior beliefs more favorably than studies reporting findings inconsistent with their previous beliefs. [84] [125] [126] However, assuming that the research question is relevant, the experimental design adequate and the data are clearly and comprehensively described, the found results should be of importance to the scientific community and should not be viewed prejudicially, regardless of whether they conform to current theoretical predictions. [126]In the context of scientific research, confirmation biases can sustain theories or research programs in the face of inadequate or even contradictory evidence; [77] [127] the field of parapsychology has been particularly affected. [128]An experimenter's confirmation bias can potentially affect which data are reported. Data that conflict with the experimenter's expectations may be more readily discarded as unreliable, producing the so-called file drawer effect. To combat this tendency, scientific training teaches ways to prevent bias. [129] For example, experimental design of randomized controlled trials (coupled with their systematic review) aims to minimize sources of bias. [129] [130] The social process of peer review is thought to mitigate the effect of individual scientists' biases, [131] even though the peer review process itself may be susceptible to such biases. [126] [132] [133] Confirmation bias may thus be especially harmful to objective evaluations regarding nonconforming results since biased individuals may regard opposing evidence to be weak in principle and give little serious thought to revising their beliefs. [125] Scientific innovators often meet with resistance from the scientific community, and research presenting controversial results frequently receives harsh peer review. [134]In self-image [ edit]Social psychologists have identified two tendencies in the way people seek or interpret information about themselves. Self-verification is the drive to reinforce the existing self-image and self-enhancement is the drive to seek positive feedback. Both are served by confirmation biases. [135] In experiments where people are given feedback that conflicts with their self-image, they are less likely to attend to it or remember it than when given self-verifying feedback. [136] [137] [138] They reduce the impact of such information by interpreting it as unreliable. [136] [139] [140] Similar experiments have found a preference for positive feedback, and the people who give it, over negative feedback. [135]In social media [ edit]In social media, confirmation bias is amplified by the use of filter bubbles, or “algorithmic editing”, which shows individuals information that they are more likely to agree with, while excluding opposing views. [141] Some have argued that confirmation bias is the reason why society can never escape from filter bubbles, because individuals are psychologically hardwired to seek information that agrees with our preexisting values and beliefs. [142] Others have further argued that the mixture of the two is degrading democracy —claiming that this “algorithmic editing” removes diverse viewpoints and information—and that unless filter bubble algorithms are removed, voters will be unable to make fully informed political decisions. [143] [141]See also [ edit]Logic portal Psychology portal Thinking portal Apophenia Belief perseverance Cherry picking Circular source Cognitive bias mitigation Cognitive inertia Cognitive miser Cultural tracking Denial Denialism Echo chamber (media)Eisegesis False consensus effect Filter bubble Hostile media effect Hypocrisy Idée fixe (psychology)List of biases in judgment and decision making List of memory biases Observer-expectancy effect Reinforcement theory Selective exposure theory Selective perception Semmelweis reflex Woozle effect Notes [ edit]^ David Perkins, a professor and researcher at the Harvard Graduate School of Education, coined the term ""myside bias"" referring to a preference for ""my"" side of an issue. ( Baron 2000, p. 195)^ ""Assimilation bias"" is another term used for biased interpretation of evidence. ( Risen & Gilovich 2007, p. 113)^ Wason also used the term ""verification bias"". 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(1992), ""Motivated skepticism: use of differential decision criteria for preferred and nonpreferred conclusions"", Journal of Personality and Social Psychology, American Psychological Association, 63 (4): 568–84, doi: 10.1037/0022-3514.63.4.568, ISSN 0022-3514^ Nickerson 1998, p. 198^ Oswald & Grosjean 2004, pp. 91–93^ Friedrich 1993, pp. 299, 316–17^ Trope, Y.; Liberman, A. (1996), ""Social hypothesis testing: cognitive and motivational mechanisms"", in Higgins, E. Tory; Kruglanski, Arie W., Social Psychology: Handbook of basic principles, New York: Guilford Press, ISBN 978-1-57230-100-9, OCLC 34731629 via Oswald & Grosjean 2004, pp. 91–93^ a b Dardenne, Benoit; Leyens, Jacques-Philippe (1995), ""Confirmation Bias as a Social Skill"", Personality and Social Psychology Bulletin, Society for Personality and Social Psychology, 21 (11): 1229–39, doi: 10.1177/01461672952111011, ISSN 1552-7433^ Shanteau, James (2003), Sandra L. 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(2001), ""The psychology of financial decision-making: Applications to trading, dealing, and investment analysis"", Journal of Behavioral Finance, Institute of Behavioral Finance, 2 (1): 37–39, doi: 10.1207/S15327760JPFM0201_4, ISSN 1542-7579^ Krueger, David; Mann, John David (2009), The Secret Language of Money: How to Make Smarter Financial Decisions and Live a Richer Life, Mc Graw Hill Professional, pp. 112–13, ISBN 978-0-07-162339-1, OCLC 277205993^ a b Nickerson 1998, p. 192^ Goldacre 2008, p. 233^ Singh, Simon; Ernst, Edzard (2008), Trick or Treatment? : Alternative Medicine on Trial, London: Bantam, pp. 287–88, ISBN 978-0-593-06129-9^ Atwood, Kimball (2004), ""Naturopathy, Pseudoscience, and Medicine: Myths and Fallacies vs Truth"", Medscape General Medicine, 6 (1): 33^ Pang, Dominic; Bleetman, Anthony; Bleetman, David; Wynne, Max (2 June 2017), ""The foreign body that never was: the effects of confirmation bias"", British Journal of Hospital Medicine, 78 (6): 350–351, doi: 10.12968/hmed.2017.78.6.350, PMID 28614014, retrieved 22 June 2017^ Neenan, Michael; Dryden, Windy (2004), Cognitive therapy: 100 key points and techniques, Psychology Press, p. ix, ISBN 978-1-58391-858-6, OCLC 474568621^ Blackburn, Ivy-Marie; Davidson, Kate M. (1995), Cognitive therapy for depression & anxiety: a practitioner's guide (2 ed. ), Wiley-Blackwell, p. 19, ISBN 978-0-632-03986-9, OCLC 32699443^ Harvey, Allison G.; Watkins, Edward; Mansell, Warren (2004), Cognitive behavioural processes across psychological disorders: a transdiagnostic approach to research and treatment, Oxford University Press, pp. 172–73, 176, ISBN 978-0-19-852888-3, OCLC 602015097^ Nickerson 1998, pp. 191–93^ Myers, D. G.; Lamm, H. (1976), ""The group polarization phenomenon"", Psychological Bulletin, 83 (4): 602–27, doi: 10.1037/0033-2909.83.4.602 via Nickerson 1998, pp. 193–94^ Halpern, Diane F. (1987), Critical thinking across the curriculum: a brief edition of thought and knowledge, Lawrence Erlbaum Associates, p. 194, ISBN 978-0-8058-2731-6, OCLC 37180929^ Roach, Kent (2010), ""Wrongful Convictions: Adversarial and Inquisitorial Themes"", North Carolina Journal of International Law and Commercial Regulation, 35, SSRN 1619124, Both adversarial and inquisitorial systems seem subject to the dangers of tunnel vision or confirmation bias.^ Baron 2000, pp. 191, 195^ Kida 2006, p. 155^ Tetlock, Philip E. (2005), Expert Political Judgment: How Good Is It? How Can We Know?, Princeton, N. J.: Princeton University Press, pp. 125–28, ISBN 978-0-691-12302-8, OCLC 56825108^ a b Smith, Jonathan C. (2009), Pseudoscience and Extraordinary Claims of the Paranormal: A Critical Thinker's Toolkit, John Wiley and Sons, pp. 149–51, ISBN 978-1-4051-8122-8, OCLC 319499491^ Randi, James (1991), James Randi: psychic investigator, Boxtree, pp. 58–62, ISBN 978-1-85283-144-8, OCLC 26359284^ a b Nickerson 1998, p. 190^ a b Nickerson 1998, pp. 192–94^ a b Koehler 1993^ a b c Mahoney 1977^ Proctor, Robert W.; Capaldi, E. John (2006), Why science matters: understanding the methods of psychological research, Wiley-Blackwell, p. 68, ISBN 978-1-4051-3049-3, OCLC 318365881^ Sternberg, Robert J. (2007), ""Critical Thinking in Psychology: It really is critical"", in Sternberg, Robert J.; Roediger III, Henry L.; Halpern, Diane F., Critical Thinking in Psychology, Cambridge University Press, p. 292, ISBN 0-521-60834-1, OCLC 69423179, Some of the worst examples of confirmation bias are in research on parapsychology ... Arguably, there is a whole field here with no powerful confirming data at all. But people want to believe, and so they find ways to believe.^ a b Shadish, William R. (2007), ""Critical Thinking in Quasi-Experimentation"", in Sternberg, Robert J.; Roediger III, Henry L.; Halpern, Diane F., Critical Thinking in Psychology, Cambridge University Press, p. 49, ISBN 978-0-521-60834-3^ Jüni, P.; Altman, D. G.; Egger, M. (2001), ""Systematic reviews in health care: Assessing the quality of controlled clinical trials"", BMJ (Clinical research ed. ), 323 (7303): 42–46, doi: 10.1136/bmj.323.7303.42, PMC 1120670, PMID 11440947^ Shermer, Michael (July 2006), ""The Political Brain"", Scientific American, 295: 36, Bibcode: 2006Sci Am.295a..36S, doi: 10.1038/scientificamerican0706-36, ISSN 0036-8733, retrieved 2009-08-14^ Emerson, G. B.; Warme, W. J.; Wolf, F. M.; Heckman, J. D.; Brand, R. A.; Leopold, S. S. (2010), ""Testing for the Presence of Positive-Outcome Bias in Peer Review: A Randomized Controlled Trial"", Archives of Internal Medicine, 170 (21): 1934–39, doi: 10.1001/archinternmed.2010.406, PMID 21098355^ Steven James Bartlett, ""The Psychology of Abuse in Publishing: Peer Review and Editorial Bias,"" Chap. 7, pp. 147-177, in Steven James Bartlett, Normality Does Not Equal Mental Health: The Need to Look Elsewhere for Standards of Good Psychological Health. Santa Barbara, CA: Praeger, 2011.^ Horrobin 1990^ a b Swann, William B.; Pelham, Brett W.; Krull, Douglas S. (1989), ""Agreeable Fancy or Disagreeable Truth? Reconciling Self-Enhancement and Self-Verification"", Journal of Personality and Social Psychology, American Psychological Association, 57 (5): 782–91, doi: 10.1037/0022-3514.57.5.782, ISSN 0022-3514, PMID 2810025^ a b Swann, William B.; Read, Stephen J. (1981), ""Self-Verification Processes: How We Sustain Our Self-Conceptions"", Journal of Experimental Social Psychology, Academic Press, 17 (4): 351–72, doi: 10.1016/0022-1031 (81)90043-3, ISSN 0022-1031^ Story, Amber L. (1998), ""Self-Esteem and Memory for Favorable and Unfavorable Personality Feedback"", Personality and Social Psychology Bulletin, Society for Personality and Social Psychology, 24 (1): 51–64, doi: 10.1177/0146167298241004, ISSN 1552-7433^ White, Michael J.; Brockett, Daniel R.; Overstreet, Belinda G. (1993), ""Confirmatory Bias in Evaluating Personality Test Information: Am I Really That Kind of Person? "", Journal of Counseling Psychology, American Psychological Association, 40 (1): 120–26, doi: 10.1037/0022-0167.40.1.120, ISSN 0022-0167^ Swann, William B.; Read, Stephen J. (1981), ""Acquiring Self-Knowledge: The Search for Feedback That Fits"", Journal of Personality and Social Psychology, American Psychological Association, 41 (6): 1119–28, doi: 10.1037/0022-3514.41.6.1119, ISSN 0022-3514^ Shrauger, J. Sidney; Lund, Adrian K. (1975), ""Self-evaluation and reactions to evaluations from others"", Journal of Personality, Duke University Press, 43 (1): 94–108, doi: 10.1111/j.1467-6494.1975.tb00574.x, PMID 1142062^ a b Pariser, Eli (May 2, 2011), ""Ted Talk: Beware Online ""Filter Bubbles "" "", TED: Ideas Worth Spreading, retrieved October 1, 2017^ Self, Will (November 28, 2016), ""Forget fake news on Facebook – the real filter bubble is you"", New Statesman, retrieved October 24, 2017^ Pariser, Eli (May 7, 2015), ""Did Facebook's Big Study Kill My Filter Bubble Thesis? "", Wired, retrieved October 24, 2017Sources [ edit]Baron, Jonathan (2000), Thinking and deciding (3rd ed. ), New York: Cambridge University Press, ISBN 0-521-65030-5, OCLC 316403966Fine, Cordelia (2006), A Mind of its Own: how your brain distorts and deceives, Cambridge, UK: Icon books, ISBN 1-84046-678-2, OCLC 60668289Friedrich, James (1993), ""Primary error detection and minimization (PEDMIN) strategies in social cognition: a reinterpretation of confirmation bias phenomena"", Psychological Review, American Psychological Association, 100 (2): 298–319, doi: 10.1037/0033-295X.100.2.298, ISSN 0033-295X, PMID 8483985Goldacre, Ben (2008), Bad Science, London: Fourth Estate, ISBN 978-0-00-724019-7, OCLC 259713114Hergovich, Andreas; Schott, Reinhard; Burger, Christoph (2010), ""Biased Evaluation of Abstracts Depending on Topic and Conclusion: Further Evidence of a Confirmation Bias Within Scientific Psychology"", Current Psychology, 29 (3): 188–209, doi: 10.1007/s12144-010-9087-5Horrobin, David F. (1990), ""The philosophical basis of peer review and the suppression of innovation"", Journal of the American Medical Association, 263 (10): 1438–41, doi: 10.1001/jama.263.10.1438, PMID 2304222Kida, Thomas E. (2006), Don't believe everything you think: the 6 basic mistakes we make in thinking, Amherst, New York: Prometheus Books, ISBN 978-1-59102-408-8, OCLC 63297791Koehler, Jonathan J. (1993), ""The influence of prior beliefs on scientific judgments of evidence quality"", Organizational Behavior and Human Decision Processes, 56: 28–55, doi: 10.1006/obhd.1993.1044Kunda, Ziva (1999), Social Cognition: Making Sense of People, MIT Press, ISBN 978-0-262-61143-5, OCLC 40618974Lewicka, Maria (1998), ""Confirmation Bias: Cognitive Error or Adaptive Strategy of Action Control? "", in Kofta, Mirosław; Weary, Gifford; Sedek, Grzegorz, Personal control in action: cognitive and motivational mechanisms, Springer, pp. 233–55, ISBN 978-0-306-45720-3, OCLC 39002877Maccoun, Robert J. (1998), ""Biases in the interpretation and use of research results"" (PDF), Annual Review of Psychology, 49: 259–87, doi: 10.1146/annurev.psych.49.1.259, PMID 15012470Mahoney, Michael J. (1977), ""Publication prejudices: an experimental study of confirmatory bias in the peer review system"", Cognitive Therapy and Research, 1 (2): 161–75, doi: 10.1007/BF01173636Nickerson, Raymond S. (1998), ""Confirmation Bias; A Ubiquitous Phenomenon in Many Guises"", Review of General Psychology, Educational Publishing Foundation, 2 (2): 175–220, doi: 10.1037/1089-2680.2.2.175, ISSN 1089-2680Oswald, Margit E.; Grosjean, Stefan (2004), ""Confirmation Bias"", in Pohl, Rüdiger F., Cognitive Illusions: A Handbook on Fallacies and Biases in Thinking, Judgement and Memory, Hove, UK: Psychology Press, pp. 79–96, ISBN 978-1-84169-351-4, OCLC 55124398Plous, Scott (1993), The Psychology of Judgment and Decision Making, Mc Graw-Hill, ISBN 978-0-07-050477-6, OCLC 26931106Poletiek, Fenna (2001), Hypothesis-testing behaviour, Hove, UK: Psychology Press, ISBN 978-1-84169-159-6, OCLC 44683470Risen, Jane; Gilovich, Thomas (2007), ""Informal Logical Fallacies"", in Sternberg, Robert J.; Roediger III, Henry L.; Halpern, Diane F., Critical Thinking in Psychology, Cambridge University Press, pp. 110–30, ISBN 978-0-521-60834-3, OCLC 69423179Vyse, Stuart A. (1997), Believing in magic: The psychology of superstition, New York: Oxford University Press, ISBN 0-19-513634-9, OCLC 35025826Further reading [ edit]Keohane, Joe (11 July 2010), ""How facts backfire: Researchers discover a surprising threat to democracy: our brains"", Boston Globe, NY Times Leavitt, Fred (2015), Dancing with Absurdity: Your Most Cherished Beliefs (and All Your Others) are Probably Wrong, Peter Lang Publishers Stanovich, Keith (2009), What Intelligence Tests Miss: The Psychology of Rational Thought, New Haven (CT): Yale University Press, ISBN 978-0-300-12385-2, lay summary (PDF) (21 November 2010)Westen, Drew (2007), The political brain: the role of emotion in deciding the fate of the nation, Public Affairs, ISBN 978-1-58648-425-5, OCLC 86117725External links [ edit]Wikiquote has quotations related to: Confirmation bias Skeptic's Dictionary: confirmation bias – Robert T. Carroll Teaching about confirmation bias – class handout and instructor's notes by K. H. Grobman Confirmation bias at You Are Not So Smart Confirmation bias learning object – interactive number triples exercise by Rod Mc Farland for Simon Fraser University Brief summary of the 1979 Stanford assimilation bias study – Keith Rollag, Babson College [ hide]v t e Biases Cognitive biases Acquiescence Anchoring Attentional Attribution Authority Automation Belief Blind spot Choice-supportive Confirmation Congruence Cultural Distinction Dunning–Kruger Egocentric Emotional Extrinsic incentives Fading affect Correspondence Halo effect Hindsight Horn effect Hostile attribution Impact In-group Mere-exposure effect Negativity Normalcy Omission Optimism Outcome Precision Pro-innovation Response Restraint Self-serving Social comparison Status quo Time-saving Trait ascriptionvon Restorff effect Zero-risk In animals Statistical biases Estimator Forecast Healthy user Information Lead time Length time Non-response Omitted-variable Participation Recall Sampling Selection Self-selection Social desirability Spectrum Survivorship Systematic error Systemic Verification Wet Other biases Academic Exponent Funding FUTON Inductive Infrastructure Inherent in education Media Vietnam War Norway South Asia Sweden United States Arab–Israeli conflict Ukraine Net Publication Reporting White hat Bias reduction Cognitive bias mitigation Debiasing Heuristics in judgment and decision-making Lists: General · Memory Categories: Design of experiments Inductive fallacies Misuse of statistics Memory biases Cognitive inertia Psychological concepts Psychology Error Ignorance "


how long is if your on disability

If, at the time of this review, your condition has improved and you are able to return to work, your benefits will stop. If you are unable to return to work and your condition has not improved, then you will continue to receive Social Security Disability payments and will be up for review again in another 2 to 5 years. If your case is labeled as MINE that means that the SSA does not think your condition will ever improve.

Once I am approved, will I continue to receive disability benefits forever? You have just been approved for Social Security Disability benefits and you finally let out a long sigh of relief. You have probably been through the ordeal of a Social Security Disability appeal and couldn’t be happier that the process is finally over. The question on your mind now is probably whether or not you will continue to receive those Social Security Disability payments indefinitely, or if they will stop at some point in the future. The answer isn’t the same for all Social Security Disability recipients. When you are awarded Social Security Disability benefits, your case is categorized into one of three categories including Medical Improvement Expected (MIE), Medical Improvement Possible (MIP) or Medical Improvement Not Expected (MINE). Which of these categories your particular case falls into depends on when you will be receiving continuing eligibility reviews and how long your Social Security Disability benefits will continue. If your case is labeled as MIE that means the SSA expects that your condition will improve and you will be given a continuing eligibility review in approximately six to eighteen months. If during that review it is determined that your condition has improved and you are able to return to work, your benefits will be discontinued. If your condition has not improved at the time of your review, your Social Security Disability payments will continue and you will receive another review in another six to eighteen months. If your case is labeled as MIP, that means the SSA believes that it is possible that your condition will improve but is not likely. In this case, you will be given a continuing eligibility review in approximately two to five years.

You will still undergo continuing eligibility reviews, but those reviews will be conducted approximately every 5 to 7 years. As long as your condition does not improve, you will continue to receive Social Security Disability benefits until you reach retirement age, at which point your disability benefits will convert over to Social Security Retirement benefits. It is important to note that even if the SSA’s continuing eligibility review determines that you are able to return to work, you can appeal the decision. During this appeal you will be able to continue receiving your monthly Social Security Disability benefit payment. However, if the appeal results in the SSA determining that there was no validity to the appeal and you are denied, you may have to pay back the money you received from the SSA while you were undergoing the appeal process. For those who suffer from severe and permanent disabilities, there is no “expiration date” set on your Social Security Disability payments. As long as you remain disabled, you will continue to receive your disability payments until you reach retirement age. At that point benefits convert to retirement benefits and are payable until death. Printer-friendly version Send by email


how long is a typical car loan?

The average new car loan is around 65 months, or more than five-and-a-half years, while the average used car loan is shorter. Long-Term Drawbacks When you're signing the paperwork at the dealer, you'll be tempted to go for a longer term.

Car Buying Buying a Car: What Term Should Your Loan Be? Share0RELATED READINGNew Car Review2018 Kia Stinger: New Car Review The 2018 Kia Stinger is equal parts fun, stylish and practical. A smart alternative to considerably more expensive sport sedans. New Car Review2018 Acura NSX: Overview The 2018 Acura NSX has the guts to play with Ferrari and Porsche with the added benefit of Acura quality and pricing.car-deals CPO Deals: April 2018We've listed today's top CPO deals and incentives for shoppers looking to save money -- and get the peace of mind of an excellent warranty. RESEARCH BY MAKESee all makes RESEARCH BY STYLEAWD/4WD Commercial Convertible Coupe Hatchback Hybrid/Electric Luxury Sedan SUV/Crossover Truck Van/Minivan Wagonby Doug De Muro March 2014If you're thinking about buying a car, you're probably thinking about financing. You may be trying to choose the right bank, get the lowest interest rate or find a good monthly payment. Another important consideration to make is how long you plan on paying off your car (also known as your loan term). We've outlined a few factors to help you decide which loan term is right for you. Available Terms Before we consider which term is right, it's probably best to think about which terms are available. In general, car loans are structured to offer 12-month increments and last somewhere between two and eight years. That means you'll find available loans of 24 months, 36 months, 48 months, 60 months, 72 months and 84 months.

There's a reason for that: By stretching out the payments over a longer period of time, they become lower. Initially, that might seem like it's more cash in your pocket, and that's a good thing, right? The problem with long-term loans is that they come with increased interest, which in other words is the extra money you have to pay the bank for giving you the loan. So while a lower monthly payment might seem like it's benefiting you, it's usually a worse decision. As an example, consider a 36-month car loan on a $28,000 vehicle. With a 3 percent interest rate, the monthly payment is more than $810 -- not a small figure. But the total amount paid over the life of the loan is $29,160, which means the loan only costs the borrower $1,160. Meanwhile, consider the same $28,000 vehicle with a 72-month loan where the interest rate has now doubled to 6 percent. By making the loan longer, the payment drops drastically to just $464 per month. But now the total amount paid is a whopping $33,408, meaning that the $28,000 car costs thousands of dollars extra when financing over the longer term with the higher interest rate. Short-Term Drawbacks So why not go for a short-term loan and take advantage of a lower rate? The main problem is the monthly payment. After all, it's no fun to make luxury-car-like monthly payments on a typical car such as a Honda Accord or Toyota Camry, even if you know in your mind that it's the smartest financial decision. Instead, most shoppers would rather finance over a longer term, even if it means paying more in the end, to get the payment to an affordable level. Our Advice: Think Long-Term With a Short-Term Loan In the end, our advice is simple: When you're buying a car and considering a car loan, opt for the shortest term and the best possible interest rate. In the short term, this might not be the most appealing idea, considering it will increase your monthly payments, and it may limit the type of car that you can afford. But in the long term, you'll thank yourself when you've saved thousands in interest and paid off your car years before you thought you would. Share


another name for brooke

Brooke was given the name Brooke Lisa Burke on September 8th, 1971 in Hartford, Connecticut, United States. Brooke is also known as Charvet and Brooke Burke. Popularity:

Brooke

"Names.orgpopular this year lists Your Searches: 189k Brooke Embed Brooke Origin: English Meaning: Small Stream Classmate Finder Free Horoscope Gender: Girl First Name 189kin the U. S. since 1880Last Name 5kin the U. S. in 2010Girls Boys First Last On This Page Related Names Pronunciation Meanings and Origins Notable Persons Named Brooke Notable Persons With the Last Name Brooke Popularity by Year and Gender Regional Popularity Ethnicity Distribution Fun Facts What Brookes Have Visited This Page? Name Poster Related Names14k Brook (English)94k Brooklyn424k Taylor<100 Broke636k Emma138k Paige833k Emily422k Hannah373k Madison1.6m Elizabeth5.1m John857k Ashley How to Pronounce Brooke Brooke Pronunciations Play Automated Male (English)Play Automated Female (English)Play User from New Jersey, United States Play User from Georgia, United States Play User from Louisiana, United States Play User from Illinois, United States How difficult is it to pronounce Brooke? Back to Top Meaning and Origin What does the name Brooke mean? Find out below. Origin and Meaning of Brooke""Brooke"" is a name of English origin, and it means ""Small Stream"". It's a name commonly given to girls. Other Dictionary Sources English lyric poet (1887-1915) Synonyms: rupert brooke Wiktionary A topographic surname for someone who lived near a brook. A surnameâ€‹. A female given name transferred from the surname, fairly popular since the 1970s. Back to Top Notable Persons Named Brooke Brooke Shields Brooke Shields is an actress and model. She was most prominent from 1966 to 1966. Brooke was given the name Brooke Christa Shields by her parents Francis Alexander Shields and Teri Shields on May 31st, 1965 in New York City, New York, U. S. Brooke is also known as Shields and Brooke Christa Camille. Popularity: Brooke Baldwin Brooke Baldwin is a news presenter and news anchor. Brooke was born on July 12th, 1979 in Atlanta, Georgia, U. S. Popularity: Brooke Burke Brooke Burke is an actress, dancer, model, and television personality. She was most prominent from 1986 to present.

Brooke Hogan Brooke Hogan is a rhythm and blues singer-songwriter, celebrity, actor, and model (people). She plays Piano and Vocals. Her ongoing career started in 2002. Brooke was given the name Brooke Ellen Bollea on May 5th, 1988 in Tampa, Florida, United States. Popularity: Brooke Burns Brooke Burns is an actress, television presenter, former model, and actor. She was most active from 1996 to present. Brooke was given the name Brooke Elizabeth Burns on March 16th, 1978 in Dallas, Texas, U. S. Popularity: Brooke Greenberg Brooke was given the name Brooke Megan Greenberg on January 5th, 1993 in Baltimore. She died on October 24th, 2013. Popularity: Back to Top Notable Persons With the Last Name Brooke Ashlynn Brooke Ashlynn was born on August 14th, 1985 in Choctaw, Oklahoma, U. S. Popularity: Dana Brooke Dana was born on November 29th, 1988 in Seven Hills, Ohio. Dana is also known as The best female body builder/wrestler in the world. Popularity: Sian Brooke Her career lasted from 2002 to 2002. Sian was born in 1980 in Lichfield. Sian is also known as Siân Brooke. Popularity: Rupert Brooke Rupert Brooke was a poet. Rupert was given the name Rupert Chawner Brooke on August 3rd, 1887 in Rugby, Warwickshire, England. He died on April 23rd, 1915. Popularity: Tom Brooke Tom was born in 1978. Popularity: Heather Brooke Heather Brooke is a journalist and writer. Heather was born in 1970 in Pennsylvania, United States. Heather is also known as Newsbrooke. Popularity: Edward Brooke51st Attorney General of Massachusetts Sir James Brooke Royalty The Lord Brooke Chancellor of the Exchequer Lauren Brooke Jonatha Brooke Musician Charles Brooke Royalty Mat Brooke Musician Tyler Brooke Actor Jason Desmond Anthony Brooke John Rutter Brooke Military Person Dame Annette Brooke For Mid Dorset10th Baron Cobham William Brooke Noble Back to Top Embed How popular is the baby name Brooke in the U. S.? Click Here to Show Chart Data Back to Top Where is the name Brooke popular? View popular names by state or region. Go Popularity of Brooke as a first name Arizona 0.10%Arkansas 0.08%Colorado 0.12%Connecticut 0.09% District of Columbia 0.04%Georgia 0.08%Idaho 0.14%Illinois 0.07%Iowa 0.12% Kansas 0.12%Louisiana 0.09%Maryland 0.12%Minnesota 0.10% Missouri 0.10%Montana 0.14%Nevada 0.13%New Jersey 0.07%North Dakota 0.13%Ohio 0.10% Oklahoma 0.10%Pennsylvania 0.09% South Carolina 0.06%South Dakota 0.14%Utah 0.18%Vermont 0.13% West Virginia 0.09%Wyoming 0.14%New Hampshire 0.13%Tennessee 0.07%Florida 0.11%Massachusetts 0.08%Virginia 0.09% Alabama 0.06%Alaska 0.11%California 0.06%Delaware 0.12%Hawaii 0.09%Indiana 0.11% Kentucky 0.07%Maine 0.12%Michigan 0.10%Mississippi 0.04%Nebraska 0.13% New Mexico 0.06%New York 0.06%Oregon 0.09%Rhode Island 0.08%Texas 0.07%Washington 0.09%Wisconsin 0.11% North Carolina 0.08%The map shows the relative popularity of the name Brooke as a first name in each of the states. See other popular names in Utah, Idaho, or Wyoming . Popularity of Brooke as a last name Arizona 10Arkansas 9Colorado 9Connecticut 28 District of Columbia 84Georgia 52Idaho 5Illinois 111Iowa 43 Kansas 38 Louisiana 9Maryland 54Minnesota 26 Missouri 60Montana 9 Nevada 3New Jersey 36North Dakota 2 Ohio 94 Oklahoma 19Pennsylvania 192 South Carolina 3South Dakota 1Utah N/AVermont 4 West Virginia 16Wyoming 5New Hampshire 4Tennessee 11 Florida 75Massachusetts 42Virginia 83 Alabama 24Alaska 1California 201Delaware N/AHawaii 2Indiana 59 Kentucky 8Maine 13 Michigan 61Mississippi 10Nebraska 30 New Mexico 7New York 135Oregon 37Rhode Island 11Texas 92Washington 47Wisconsin 16 North Carolina 5The map shows the absolute popularity of the name Brooke as a last name in each of the states. See other popular names in California, Pennsylvania, or New York . Back to Top Common last names for Brooke Smith Miller Johnson Thompson Common first names for Brooke Mary Robert William George James Charles Helen Elizabeth Ruth Richard Joseph Donald Edward Paul Ethnicity Distribution Ethnicity Brooke U. S.█ White 91.76% 64.26%█ African American 2.47% 11.96%█ Asian, Hawaiian, and Pacific Islander 0.68% 4.85%█ American Indian and Alaska Native 0.32% 0.69%█ Two or More Ethnicities 1.85% 1.76%█ Hispanic or Latino 2.92% 16.26%Of Last Name Brooke People with the last name Brooke are most frequently White Entire United States Back to Top Fun Facts about the name Brooke What name lists does Brooke rank for?#47 Girl Name of the 2000s#76 English Girl Names#9 Girl Names Unique to the Rockies How Popular is the name Brooke? Brooke is the 383 rd most popular name of all time. As a last name Brooke was the 6,717 th most popular name in 2010. How many people with the first name Brooke have been born in the United States? From 1880 to 2016, the Social Security Administration has recorded 189,206 babies born with the first name Brooke in the United States. That's more than enough people named Brooke to occupy the country of Samoa with an estimated population of 186,340 (as of November 7, 2011). What year were 5 or more babies first named Brooke? The name was first given to 5 or more babies in the year 1914 when it was given as a first name to 5 new born babies. When was Brooke first recorded in the United States? The oldest recorded birth by the Social Security Administration for the first name Brooke is Tuesday, September 15th, 1874. What year had the most people named Brooke born? The highest recorded use of the first name Brooke was in 1996 with a total of 6,725 babies. That's a lot of babies named Brooke!Random Brooke Factoid: According to the 2005 U. S. Social Security Administration data, the first name Brooke ranks 35 th in popularity as a baby girl's name in Colorado. Imagine that, 112 babies in Colorado have the same name as you in 2005. Weird things about the name Brooke: Your name in reverse order is Ekoorb. A random rearrangement of the letters in your name (anagram) will give Roekob. How do you pronounce that? How many people have the last name Brooke? In 2010, the U. S. Census Bureau surveyed 5,027 people with the last name Brooke. How likely are you to meet someone with the last name of Brooke? If you manage to meet 100,000 people in your life, chances are that 2 of them will have Brooke as their last name. Back to Top What Brookes Have Visited This Page? Add Your Name Brooke Hattabaugh Back to Top Name poster for Brooke (click to save the high quality version)Back to Top Share: FACEBOOK TWITTER PINTEREST E-MAILMost Popular Names All Time Trending Now This Year Fastest Rising2010s2000s1990s1980s1970s1960s1950s1940s1930s1920s1910s1900s1890s1880s All Name Lists Sources: U. S. Census Bureau: Frequently Occurring Surnames from the Census 2000 (public domain). U. S. Social Security Administration: Popular Baby Names, Death Master File (public domain). Other Dictionary Sources: Word Net 3.1 Copyright 2006 by Princeton University ( License ). Wiktionary: Titles and License . Notable persons via Wikipedia: Titles and License. Click each image for the attribution information. Names Searched Right Now<100 Sule431 Karys<100 Yashima<100 Yiala<100 Rahl3.6m David<100 Fionnola<100 Joncky<100 Sophal<100 Ilaisaane222k Ricky568k Samantha<100 Patwardhan<100 Isri1.6m Elizabeth<100 Ogleloo<100 Chilombo<100 Diorio1k Fate<100 Fotinate Twitter Facebook Pinterest You Tube Terms of Service About Names.org Contact Us © 2018 Names.org "